Mesopotamia - Affairs of the Middle East
Welcome to the Cradle of Civilization. This page will contain all writings related to the Middle-East. This will primarily focus on the Oil industry and its impact on international politics; and in turn regional politics. It will also cover Pakistan-India Relations, nuclear aspirations and Cyberwarfare.
20111211 - Cyber-war in Iran Part II
A short addendum to my previous post. Richard Stiennon who runs @cyberwar on twitter commented on the unlikelyhood of any relation between Conficker & Stuxnet. I was led to a brilliant rebuttal to the reuters post here on the Trend Micro blog. Rik Ferguson makes logical argument that stuxnet may share similarities in part with Conficker mainly due to Conficker's unprecedented success.
And as to the RQ170 shots released by the Iranians, the best comprehensive analysis is to be found on the aviation intel blog. Here is the original post. Here is the follow up that seems to confirm authenticity.
20111207 - Nuclear Espionage & Cyber-war in Iran
As yet another mysterious explosion occurred at an Iranian nuclear facility last week, it is worth cataloging some of the known events that stalled Iranian efforts to produce nuclear weapons.
Operation Opera, June 7 1981; for those unaware, was an Israeli air-strike on the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq. This attacked intended to damage the reactor irreparably & was a success. It is speculated that this was the main event among a campaign to prevent Iraq from obtaining nuclear status. On 14 June 1980 Yahya El Mashad was killed in a Paris hotel room; he was an Egyptian nuclear scientist working on the Iraqi Program. French Authorities suspected Mossad involvement. The Mossad is short for Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations, This is effectively the Israeli secret service. The Israeli Government stated that the Iraqi nuclear program’s progress had been retarded however it was not involved. In October 1980 Mossad advised the Israeli Government, based on Satellite imagery provided by the US, to approve Operation Opera.
Ten Iraqi soldiers and one French civilian were killed. While the International community deplored the event in statements. The only sanction was the delaying of a delivery of four F-16’s from the US. This sanction was lifted two months later. The reactor remained in its heavily damaged state until it was totally obliterated during Desert Shield by USAF strikes.
Now that was the Iraqi regime. However Iran has a similar status currently in terms of nuclear development, if anything they are further along. In the summer of 2008 there was a massive escalation of force & rhetoric between Iran and Israel, with US support. The Israelis bought more combat aircraft, the US sent reinforcements to the Persian Gulf, Iranians conducted Shahab-3 ballistic missile tests, Operation Brimstone was an international military exercise involving 15 000 personnel. However it is alleged that George W Bush, then President, vetoed an Israeli Bombing operation. The reason for the veto is not suggested. The Iranians at the time threatened to close the straight of Hormuz. One third of the worlds shipped oil passes through this straight and by the end of August 2008, no less than three US carrier strike groups were in or on route to the straights.
In June 2010 the Stuxnet worm was discovered. This virus spread through windows and targeted Siemens industrial equipment. It is attributed with damaging over 1000 centrifuges in an Iranian Uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. Based on the ISIS report on Natanz (which has since been updated to include 2011 data & analysis, here), that states 1000 centrifuges were decommissioned and replaced in late 2009 and early 2010 & the Symantec Report on Stuxnet here; where nearly 60% of computers affected where in Iran. Common Consensus in the intelligence community is that the US & Israel are responsible, although there is a case to be made for Chinese involvement.
On 12 October 2010, a large explosion occurred at the Imam Ali military base, where Shahab-3 Ballistic Missiles are stored. The Shahab-3 has a range of 800 miles and has the lifting capacity to carry a small nuclear warhead. This is one of the most heavily guarded bases in Iran. The official Iranian line is that there was an accident when a fire broke out in the ammunition warehouse. French Paper Le Figaro claimed Mossad involvement here. The blast killed 18.Then shortly after in November 2010 Mossad allegedly killed more Iranian nuclear scientist.
In November 12 2011 another Revolutionary Guard Missile base only 25 miles outside of Tehran was decimated. The official word was that there was an accident that occurred while ammunition was being moved. The Head of the Iranian missile development program was fatally wounded in the explosion & this base is also known to house Shahab-3 missiles. The blast killed 17. Then on November 30 Images were released that indicated a large explosion had occurred at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Centre. The Iranians have made several official comments ranging from it didn’t happen, to it was an accident. The Jerusalem Post claims Israeli intelligence officials state that the second attack was no accident, however Israel denies involvement. Satellite images here show the extent of the damage.
It is worth noting that in the Nuclear cycle in Iran, every major installation short of the mines themselves, including the major processing and enrichment plants, as well as two delivery system bases and the head of Iranian missile projects have all had “accidents” in the last two years.
Reuters on the 5 December 2011 published an article regarding a cyber-warfare expert outlining a case linking stuxnet to the 2008-09 virus Conficker (Symantec Report). Now while the case is plausible it raises one question. Conficker cost the world an estimated nine billion dollars so surely if the US & Israeli governments were responsible, they must have allowed for collateral damage and deemed it acceptable; or perhaps they underestimated the strength and power of their creation. Speculate on this as you wish.
Now the RQ170 Sentinel drone downed over Iran. The Iranians said they shot it down. Then they said they had hacked it. Now they say they have it intact. Meanwhile the US claimed it was a flight control malfunction. Now it has been suggested to me that if such a flight control problem affected an aileron, it might cause the drone to fly on into Iran unable to turn around. It perhaps would have prevented the drone from nose diving as an auto destruct fail-safe. That would result in the drone gliding into the ground, surviving the crash relatively undamaged. The US admitted they considered a search and destroy mission. To add to the debate Jeffrey Carr hypothesises that Perhaps Iran’s extensive cyber personnel force might have allowed this to occur with their viral intrusion into Creech AFB, where RQ170’s are stationed under the 432nd Wing USAF.
There is allegedly a war going on between the US, Israel & Iran. The war is over nuclear proliferation, and the tactics are all forms of espionage. This is only one thread, part of a much larger rope spanning all the Middle-East, Allegedly. There is only so much you can tangentially include in one post, I fear I digress too much.
Operation Opera, June 7 1981; for those unaware, was an Israeli air-strike on the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq. This attacked intended to damage the reactor irreparably & was a success. It is speculated that this was the main event among a campaign to prevent Iraq from obtaining nuclear status. On 14 June 1980 Yahya El Mashad was killed in a Paris hotel room; he was an Egyptian nuclear scientist working on the Iraqi Program. French Authorities suspected Mossad involvement. The Mossad is short for Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations, This is effectively the Israeli secret service. The Israeli Government stated that the Iraqi nuclear program’s progress had been retarded however it was not involved. In October 1980 Mossad advised the Israeli Government, based on Satellite imagery provided by the US, to approve Operation Opera.
Ten Iraqi soldiers and one French civilian were killed. While the International community deplored the event in statements. The only sanction was the delaying of a delivery of four F-16’s from the US. This sanction was lifted two months later. The reactor remained in its heavily damaged state until it was totally obliterated during Desert Shield by USAF strikes.
Now that was the Iraqi regime. However Iran has a similar status currently in terms of nuclear development, if anything they are further along. In the summer of 2008 there was a massive escalation of force & rhetoric between Iran and Israel, with US support. The Israelis bought more combat aircraft, the US sent reinforcements to the Persian Gulf, Iranians conducted Shahab-3 ballistic missile tests, Operation Brimstone was an international military exercise involving 15 000 personnel. However it is alleged that George W Bush, then President, vetoed an Israeli Bombing operation. The reason for the veto is not suggested. The Iranians at the time threatened to close the straight of Hormuz. One third of the worlds shipped oil passes through this straight and by the end of August 2008, no less than three US carrier strike groups were in or on route to the straights.
In June 2010 the Stuxnet worm was discovered. This virus spread through windows and targeted Siemens industrial equipment. It is attributed with damaging over 1000 centrifuges in an Iranian Uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. Based on the ISIS report on Natanz (which has since been updated to include 2011 data & analysis, here), that states 1000 centrifuges were decommissioned and replaced in late 2009 and early 2010 & the Symantec Report on Stuxnet here; where nearly 60% of computers affected where in Iran. Common Consensus in the intelligence community is that the US & Israel are responsible, although there is a case to be made for Chinese involvement.
On 12 October 2010, a large explosion occurred at the Imam Ali military base, where Shahab-3 Ballistic Missiles are stored. The Shahab-3 has a range of 800 miles and has the lifting capacity to carry a small nuclear warhead. This is one of the most heavily guarded bases in Iran. The official Iranian line is that there was an accident when a fire broke out in the ammunition warehouse. French Paper Le Figaro claimed Mossad involvement here. The blast killed 18.Then shortly after in November 2010 Mossad allegedly killed more Iranian nuclear scientist.
In November 12 2011 another Revolutionary Guard Missile base only 25 miles outside of Tehran was decimated. The official word was that there was an accident that occurred while ammunition was being moved. The Head of the Iranian missile development program was fatally wounded in the explosion & this base is also known to house Shahab-3 missiles. The blast killed 17. Then on November 30 Images were released that indicated a large explosion had occurred at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Centre. The Iranians have made several official comments ranging from it didn’t happen, to it was an accident. The Jerusalem Post claims Israeli intelligence officials state that the second attack was no accident, however Israel denies involvement. Satellite images here show the extent of the damage.
It is worth noting that in the Nuclear cycle in Iran, every major installation short of the mines themselves, including the major processing and enrichment plants, as well as two delivery system bases and the head of Iranian missile projects have all had “accidents” in the last two years.
Reuters on the 5 December 2011 published an article regarding a cyber-warfare expert outlining a case linking stuxnet to the 2008-09 virus Conficker (Symantec Report). Now while the case is plausible it raises one question. Conficker cost the world an estimated nine billion dollars so surely if the US & Israeli governments were responsible, they must have allowed for collateral damage and deemed it acceptable; or perhaps they underestimated the strength and power of their creation. Speculate on this as you wish.
Now the RQ170 Sentinel drone downed over Iran. The Iranians said they shot it down. Then they said they had hacked it. Now they say they have it intact. Meanwhile the US claimed it was a flight control malfunction. Now it has been suggested to me that if such a flight control problem affected an aileron, it might cause the drone to fly on into Iran unable to turn around. It perhaps would have prevented the drone from nose diving as an auto destruct fail-safe. That would result in the drone gliding into the ground, surviving the crash relatively undamaged. The US admitted they considered a search and destroy mission. To add to the debate Jeffrey Carr hypothesises that Perhaps Iran’s extensive cyber personnel force might have allowed this to occur with their viral intrusion into Creech AFB, where RQ170’s are stationed under the 432nd Wing USAF.
There is allegedly a war going on between the US, Israel & Iran. The war is over nuclear proliferation, and the tactics are all forms of espionage. This is only one thread, part of a much larger rope spanning all the Middle-East, Allegedly. There is only so much you can tangentially include in one post, I fear I digress too much.
Interesting further reading
While researching this piece I found this document, outlining the nuclear capabilities of Iran & Israel, and potential strike options against Iran. Dated from 3 March 2009.
090316_israelistrikeiran.pdf | |
File Size: | 3778 kb |
File Type: |
Also of worth is the Most recent CSIS report titled "Iran and the Gulf Military Balance". This is a very heavy piece, but is all consuming in it's scope. Dated 1 December 2011.
111128_iran_gulf_military_bal.pdf | |
File Size: | 4794 kb |
File Type: |